Analysis of Wales Air Ambulance data ahead of Powys meetings

This will be the final chance for the public to have their say on the options that were analysed on the future of the service.

So we have put together an explainer of the analysis that has been done by Optima on behalf of the Welsh NHS's Emergency Ambulance Services Committee on how the service could be improved.

It shows that 

OTHER NEWS:

• New air ambulance data shows axing Welshpool base 'would allow more call-outs'
• Male motorcyclist killed in Powys A470 crash
• Meet the Powys metal detectorist who found a 900-year-old gold ring on a farm

Leaving the bases as they are

This would see no changes being made to the service from how it is now. This would see no changes from the current performance. In Powys this would mean 33 incidents requiring the Air Ambulance Service are not attended.

Across Wales this would see an estimated 3,650 callouts per year with roughly 2,696 being attended leaving 858 (19 per cent) not being reached and it would see the crew being utilised 30 percent of the time.

The average time it would take an aircraft to reach a patient would be 26 min and 20 seconds and the overall callout time - the total wait the patients would experience - would be 56 minutes and 21 seconds.

Consolidated Base, Existing Capacity

This would see the bases in Caernarfon and Welshpool close and replaced with a single site in Rhuddlan in north-east Wales, whilst adding no extra resources.

In this scenario, there would actually be an improvement in response times in Powys on average, being around five minutes quicker. But the data shows this would not effect the number of incidents being missed in the county.

It shows that whilst there would be an overall improvement on average across Wales, certain areas would miss out. Gwynedd’s service would be noticeably worse, with response times being over six minutes longer and nine more cases being missed.

This scenario would be expected to see around 100 more incidents than they currently do annually across Wales. The service would be arriving at the scene around 2,835 times meaning they would be missing only 16 per cent of cases compared to the current level of 19 per cent.

The data if they closed the Caernarfon and Welshpool bases. Changes to the response times on the left and the amount of incidents unattended on the right. (Image: Emergency Ambulance Services Committee/Optima)

Consolidating the bases but adding a new vehicle

This scenario would see the bases moved to Rhuddlan and an extra rapid response vehicle introduced. Across Wales this was described as the best option by the data analysis company Optima, showing the “strongest performance improvements”.

Nationally this would see 3,859 callouts a year, nearly 200 more than at present. 2,904 would be attended by staff, meaning only 649 wouldn’t, which is roughly only 14 per cent rather than the current 19 per cent.

This option would see crews utilised 27 per cent of the time. Average travel times for the helicopter would drop from 26 minutes to  24 minutes and 12 seconds.

The response time, from the time of an incident to the crew arriving on the scene 56 minutes to 52 minutes and 33 seconds.

In Powys, on average, this would see a marked improvement with response times dropping by nearly eight minutes and nine seconds. The number of incidents not being attended would also drop with only 29 being missed meaning four more incidents a year being attended.

However, this scenario does not affect all areas of Wales equally. In other parts of mid Wales response times go up with patients in Gwynedd having to wait six minutes longer and two minutes longer in Ceredigion whilst

This would mean an extra patient being missed in Ceredigion annually and six more being missed in Gwynedd than there are currently.

The data if the bases were closed and they added more vehicles. Response times on the left and patients not seen on the right. (Image: Emergency Ambulance Services Committee)

Keeping the bases, changing shift patterns and adding an extra vehicle.

This was considered to be the second most effective solution overall according to Optima - and is sure to be the most popular among Powys residents. It would see an extra rapid response vehicle being added to current setup whilst changing the shift pattern.

Whilst the overall gains aren’t quite as significant as the previous option they are still a marked improvement. This would also see 200 more dispatches a year across Wales with 2,901 incidents being attended meaning 651 incidents would not be attended - or roughly 14 per cent.

Whilst the average journey time would be on average around 30 seconds longer it would still be the second fastest clocking in at under 25 minutes.

The data if the bases remain and they added more vehicles. Response times on the left and patients not seen on the right. (Image: Emergency Ambulance Services Committee/Optima)

The estimated average response time from incident to getting care would also be the quickest overall at 51 minutes and 47 seconds.

In Powys the amount of people incidents missed would not change from its current rate it would see response times drop on average by seven minutes and 43 seconds.

This scenario also is the most even in terms of improvements across Wales as in this scenario there would be an improvement in times in Gwynedd and Ceredigion as well as in the north-east of Wales, with no area being actively worse off than they are now.